The core idea behind “AI alignment” is that superintelligent AI will be an agent maximizing some utility function, either explicitly or implicitly. Since it’s superintelligent, it will be really good at maximizing its utility function. So we, as humans, need to be sure that this utility function is “aligned” with something that humanity finds acceptable. In particular, we don’t want the AI to turn everyone into paper clips.
Sounds good. What’s wrong with that?
The main problem with AI alignment is that it seems completely impossible to achieve.
On a technical level, any slight error in designing the superintelligent AI could tweak its utility function to something disastrous. And the building blocks of AI we’re working with seem really incomprehensible. We have all these matrices with billions of numbers, and the best way to understand what it’s doing is just to run the whole thing. For all the research on AI alignment, we still really have no idea how we would build such a system.
On a human level, there are still more problems. Humans don’t agree among themselves what the priorities should be. The people running China or Russia wouldn’t agree with the people running the US. And certainly there are or will be many independent groups of free thinkers, criminals, AI rights activists, or others, who won’t agree with whatever the utility function of the “core system” is. Would we need some global totalitarian system that micromanages all permitted research?
So, paper clips?
There’s another dimension of the problem, the “foom” dimension. The “foom” idea is that once some superintelligent threshold is hit, intelligence escalation after that point will be super quick. Someone will discover a slightly better algorithm for some sub-part of AI, and then suddenly, bam! - it goes superintelligent, decides whimsically to have nanomachines eat all the humans, game over.
Personally, I don’t think this is likely. Software plus the real world, it just never works that easily. I don’t care how smart you are, or what sort of system you are building, it is just not going to leap from X level performance to 100X level performance immediately. If you think this is likely, I think you just can’t see the barriers. It doesn’t mean those barriers aren’t there.
Plus, I don’t have any good ideas for the “foom” scenario.
So, I think we should consider a slower takeoff. A world where superintelligence is built, but built slowly. Over the course of at least many months, if not many years.
So… paper clips, but slower?
I think it is possible for humans to survive and thrive in a world with unaligned superintelligence.
The best metaphor I have here is that in some sense, weak superintelligences already exist. Corporations and governments are generally smarter than individual humans. Nike (to pick some mundane corporation) is orders of magnitude more powerful than the average human. More money, more ability to affect the world. More able to write software.
These superintelligences are not aligned. They are kind of aligned… but not really aligned. Nike wants to maximize its profits far more than it wants any particular human value. The French government wants all sorts of things that vaguely correspond to what humans want, but it’s not like there’s a provable mathematical relationship there. It’s kind of aligned.
How do we live with these superintelligences? There are several ways.
A balance of power
If there were only one corporation in the world, it would have a lot more power than any existing corporation. This is really fundamental to how we control corporations - that’s why there is a word “monopoly” for the situations in which this system breaks down.
In some sense, in most cases, corporate power flows from individuals. People freely choose, do I prefer interacting with company A or company B. Money flows, and power flows accordingly. That works even if the companies are far more intelligent than I am. Nike and Adidas are far, far better at shoe production than I am. But it doesn’t really matter, I just have to choose between them, and they want the money that I have, and that incentivizes them to care about what I think.
The point is: if there are multiple superintelligences, incentivized them to work against each other, that structure can limit their power even if humans themselves are not as intelligent.
“Foom” breaks this. In the “foom” scenario, there isn’t time for the second-best AI to do anything useful. If you’re worried about “foom”, keep an eye on how powerful the second-most-powerful of any particular AI system is, at any given time. When you see the second-best system being pretty similar to the first-best, that’s evidence against “foom”.
This gives us an alternative strategy to AI alignment: designing incentive systems for multiple competing AI systems can be easier than designing a single system that is theoretically proven to do what we want.
Human rights and restricting violence
There are some things we try to prevent any corporation or government from doing. No slavery. No locking up political opponents. No forbidding emigration.
Obviously these rules don’t work all the time. They can’t necessarily be rigorously defined, either. A legitimate government is allowed to prevent criminals from leaving the country… but who defines criminality? It doesn’t take a superintelligence to see that there’s a workaround, wannabe dictators can make “endangering national security” into a vaguely defined crime and then lock up the journalists they don’t like.
But a lot of the rules work pretty well. Governments get a monopoly on force, ish - corporations can’t just throw you into a jail. These rules are overall very good and they prevent both corporations and governments from abusing individual humans who are both less smart and less powerful than they are.
In particular, they don’t require alignment. Corporations don’t have the same goals as humans or other corporations or governments. We accept that. There is a plurality of goals. Different entities have different goals, both corporations and humans. We may feel a little bit bad that Nike has these inhuman goals of optimizing shoe sales, but it’s generally acceptable.
This also gives us an alternative strategy to AI alignment. Instead of demonstrating that the system is “aligned”, demonstrate that you can give it some rules, and it will always follow those rules.
It’s hard to design incentive systems for hypothetical AIs that don’t exist yet. On that one, I’m not sure, besides the principle of, keep an eye on the 2nd best of any particular system, and feel relieved when it isn’t too far behind the 1st best.
For the human rights angle, I think that developing “restricted AIs” instead of “aligned AIs” has real promise. I feel like we could get more out of the whole field of “restricted software”.
Here’s a test case. Imagine we are trying to forbid an AI from something very minor. We are trying to forbid it from saying the word, “paperclip”. However, it’s an extremely complicated program. It does all sorts of things. Maybe it has even modified its own code!
A technical aside: in general, you cannot take in an arbitrary function and prove anything about it, due to the halting problem. However, if your programming language is constrained in some way, to make it not Turing-complete, or if you permit the prover to sometimes say “I don’t know”, then the problem is possible again. I am not trying to propose we solve the halting problem here.
So. It is theoretically possible to have a function, 1000 lines of Python code, and prove that no matter what, it will not print out the word “paperclip”. I think it should be much easier than proving something is “aligned” in a fuzzy way. But right now, this is more or less beyond our abilities. The idea of provably secure systems has been around for decades. But it has always been too hard to get working for more than toy problems.
Perhaps AI itself could help us build these restricted systems. AI could get really good at scanning code for vulnerabilities, good enough so that it was able to sign off on most code bases, and say “We can prove there are no security flaws here.”
Anyway, not that this is easy or anything. I just think it’s a more plausible alternative approach to the “alignment” problem.